Australia’s population is changing in two clear ways. Fewer babies are being born while people are living longer. The latest official figures and long-term forecasts show the country is ageing faster than many expected.
Falling birth rates reach new lows
The total fertility rate — the average number of children a woman is expected to have — has dropped sharply. It stood at a record low of 1.48 in 2024. Official projections now expect it to fall further to around 1.34 by the mid-2060s.
This is well below the replacement level of 2.1 needed for a population to stay stable without migration. The decline has been steady for years and is now accelerating the shift towards an older society.
People are living longer
At the same time, life expectancy continues to rise. Current figures show men living to about 81 years and women to about 85 years on average. By 2066, these numbers are expected to reach roughly 86 years for men and 89.5 years for women.
Better healthcare and medical advances are the main reasons. More Australians are expected to reach their 80s and 90s, with the number of people aged 85 and over set to nearly triple in the coming decades.
What this means for the population
These two trends together mean natural increase — births minus deaths — is slowing. In the year to March 2026, natural increase added only about 100,600 people. By the 2060s, deaths are projected to outnumber births for the first time.
Here are the key shifts expected:
- The median age will rise from about 38.5 years today to 45 years by 2066
- The population aged 65 and over will grow much faster than younger age groups
- Migration will become the main driver of any overall population growth
- Pressure will increase on aged care, health services and the workforce
Growth still continues, but differently
Australia’s total population reached nearly 27.9 million by March 2026. Growth remains positive, but it is increasingly reliant on overseas migration rather than births. Annual growth has slowed compared with recent peaks.
Without strong migration, the population would age even more quickly and could eventually start to shrink in some areas.
Looking ahead
The combination of fewer births and longer lives is reshaping Australia’s future. It will affect everything from schools and housing to pensions and healthcare. The figures make one thing clear: the country is moving towards a smaller share of young people and a much larger group of older Australians.