Australia is getting older faster than earlier forecasts suggested. The latest long-term projections show a sharp rise in the number of people aged 85 and over. Communities across the country are already planning for the changes this will bring.
The scale of the shift
There are currently around 625,000 Australians aged 85 and older. Official forecasts expect that number to reach 1.9 million by the mid-2060s. That is nearly three times the current figure.
Most of the increase is expected in the 2030s and 2040s. At the same time, the overall median age of the population is projected to rise from about 38.5 years today to 45 years.
Why the change is speeding up
Two main factors are driving the trend. Fertility rates have fallen to record lows, meaning fewer babies are being born. At the same time, life expectancy continues to improve. More people are living into their late 80s and beyond.
The combination means the share of older Australians is growing more quickly than previously expected. The population under 20 is set to increase only modestly, while the 65-and-over group expands far more rapidly.
What this means for communities
People in their 80s and 90s often need more support with health, mobility and daily living. This raises demand for:
- Aged care services and residential places
- Home-based support and community programs
- Suitable housing that allows people to stay independent longer
- Health services focused on chronic conditions and frailty
Local councils, health providers and aged care operators are reviewing capacity and workforce needs. Many are looking at how to expand services without creating shortages of trained staff.
Preparing for the years ahead
The shift is already visible in planning discussions. Some regions are examining age-friendly design for public spaces, transport and housing. Others are focusing on workforce pipelines for care roles, which will need to grow to match demand.
Living longer is a success story. The challenge now is making sure communities have the homes, services and support systems ready as the number of Australians over 85 rises sharply in the coming decades.